Przewidywane efekty Narodowego Planu Rozwoju na lata 2007-2013 i polityki spójności Unii Europejskiej w Polsce - Zaleski, Janusz; Tomaszewski, Paweł (Predictions of Effects of National Development Plan 2007-2013 and the EU Cohesion Policy in Poland, 2006)
The results of research work on impacts of the Polish National Development Plan 2007-2013 on the national economy using improved version of HERMIN macroeconomic model of Polish economy are presented. Polish implementation of the HERMIN modeling framework originally was developed in 2002 by Bradley and Zaleski for the needs of ex ante evaluation of the first NDP 2004-2006 in the context of Poland's accession to the EU. Current evaluation of macroeconomic effect of the new NDP is based on assumed financial transfers from the EU and national co-financing as stated in its preliminary draft adopted in January 11, 2005 by the Council of Ministers. The study presents methodology and basic assumptions of the implemented evaluation and the likely impacts of the EU and national public financed investments within the NDP on basic macroeconomic parameters: GDP growth, employment, unemployment rate and productivity.
Keywords: Prace Naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej we Wrocławiu; 2006; nr 1099, s. 258-268