Object

Title: Forecasting the number of births in Poland using leading indicators

Title in english:

Prognozowanie liczby urodzeń w Polsce z wykorzystaniem zmiennych wyprzedzających

Creator:

Krupowicz, Joanna

Description:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu = Research Papers of Wrocław University of Economics; 2011; Nr 196, s. 124-136

Abstrakt:

The concepts of leading and lagging indicators are of great use in studies of cyclical fluctuations in economic phenomena. The article discusses the possible application of the concepts in analysing and forecasting the birth process in Poland. The article was designed to use leading indicators for projecting the number of births in Poland. For the reference variable (the number of births), leading indicators were sought in the set of potential demographic variables. The set comprised variables describing the structural factors responsible for the birth process. A synthetic leading indicator was constructed and then the projected numbers of births in Poland for 2006-2015 were computed. Subsequently, the projections for the years 2006-2009 were verified in terms of quality.

Publisher:

Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

Place of publication:

Wrocław

Date:

2011

Resource Type:

artykuł

Resource Identifier:

oai:dbc.wroc.pl:118985

Language:

pol

Relation:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu = Research Papers of Wrocław University of Economics; 2011; Nr 196 ; Ekonometria = Econometrics, 2011, Nr 32

Rights:

Wszystkie prawa zastrzeżone (Copyright)

Access Rights:

Dla wszystkich w zakresie dozwolonego użytku

Location:

Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

Coverage:

Dofinansowano z programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" Ministra Edukacji i Nauki (SONB/SP/546390/2022). Tytuł projektu: Upowszechnienie zawartości czasopisma Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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