Title:

Multi-Criteria Combined Forecasts

Group publication title:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

Title in english:

Wielokryterialne prognozy kombinowane

Creator:

Kaźmierska-Zatoń, Maria ; Zatoń, Wojciech

Subject and Keywords:

forecast ; combining ; weights ; criteria ; optimization

Description:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu = Research Papers of Wrocław University of Economics; 2010; Nr 91, s. 59-75

Abstrakt:

Using combination of forecasts results from the underlying belief that there is no such a single model that could comprise the whole actual and often complex economic process. The aim of this paper is an attempt to look at combining forecasts as a multi-criteria decision-making process. It is a multi-criteria process as we need to select: (a) individual component forecasts (quantity, quality, type), (b) values of their weights (objective determination of weights or their arbitrary choice), (c) a mathematical representation of combination and (d) a measure to assess the quality of a combined forecast. In the paper we provide an overview of methods applied for combining forecasts and show the results of our study of a combined forecast for inflation in Poland. The analysis indicates that combining forecasts is fully justified, especially if weights for individual forecasts are determined on the basis of multi-criteria optimization. The results also show that combining forecasts is useful even if a dominant individual forecast exists.

Publisher:

Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

Place of publication:

Wrocław

Date:

2010

Resource Type:

artykuł

Language:

eng

Relation:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu = Research Papers of Wrocław University of Economics; 2010; Nr 91 ; Econometrics, vol. 28

Rights:

Wszystkie prawa zastrzeżone (Copyright)

Access Rights:

Dla wszystkich w zakresie dozwolonego użytku

Location:

Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

Coverage:

Dofinansowano z programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" Ministra Edukacji i Nauki (SONB/SP/546390/2022). Tytuł projektu: Upowszechnienie zawartości czasopisma Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu